Anamika Dey, editor
Brief news
- The support of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee by President Joe Biden has made the race highly competitive and uncertain.
- Harris is currently on track to secure the Democratic nomination, but she still needs to secure the support of a majority of delegates before the Democratic National Convention.
- Experts believe that Harris has advantages over Biden, such as her stance on abortion and her ability to appeal to certain demographics, but she also has vulnerabilities, such as not being particularly endearing as a retail politician.
Detailed news
Certain forecasters viewpoints, that the support of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee by President Joe Biden has established the foundation for a highly competitive and uncertain race in November.
Following a disastrous debate performance and the fact that Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading in the surveys, Biden withdrew from the campaign on Sunday due to pressure from prominent Democrats.
Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group, stated that the Democrats were on the brink of a “landslide defeat” in November; however, they now have a chance.
“They have redirected the course of this race, and President Biden has provided the Democrats with a viable opportunity,” he stated during an appearance on “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
Harris is currently on a trajectory to secure the Democratic nomination; however, she must still secure the support of a majority of delegates prior to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.Bremmer stated that “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the prohibitive favorite to become the nominee,” despite the possibility that other contenders may enter the race.
Steven Okun, the founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, stated on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that Harris would provide the Democrats with a “total reset” if she secures the nomination.
“If the Democrats can remain united, emerge from this convention with a single voice, and emerge energized and enthusiastic, they have a strong likelihood of winning in November,” he stated.
Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a match-up with Trump, according to Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has accurately forecasted the victor of every presidential election since 1984, in an interview with CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”
He intends to postpone his official prediction until the Democratic convention.
In a post on the social media platform X, Harris stated that she was seeking to “earn and win” the nomination while also fostering unity among Democrats.
The manner in which Harris assists Democrats
Harris has a number of advantages over her erstwhile running companion, according to experts who spoke to CNBC.
Okun stated that abortion is a critical issue on which she will have a competitive advantage, despite the fact that Republicans have been making progress on the economy, inflation, and immigration fronts. As the first female Vice President, Harris has been vocal about reproductive issues.
Bremmer of Eurasia stated, “The reality is that Biden and Trump are too old to continue running and serving for an additional four years, and this is currently the most significant vulnerability for Trump.”
According to a recent survey, approximately 85% of the populace believed that Biden was too elderly to continue serving for an additional four years. According to the same survey, 60% of Americans believed that Trump was too elderly.
Bremmer further stated, “You observe a significant amount of enthusiasm for Harris, a former prosecutor who is younger, more vibrant, and more energetic. He is capable of performing exceptionally well on the debate stage.”
Bremmer also noted that Harris has certain deficiencies. “She is not particularly endearing as a retail politician; this has been a vulnerability for her.” He also mentioned that there are certain hazards associated with running as a woman in the United States today, as a daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father.
However, Charles Myers, the Founder and CEO of Signum Global policy, stated on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that she may be more advantageous than Biden in terms of alienating specific demographics, such as “women, young people, and black voters.”
“It is an entirely new competition.” “There is a new candidate who is supported by an immense amount of unity and enthusiasm,” he stated.
Enhanced market uncertainty
Markets had been progressively pricing in a Trump victory, as it was anticipated that his presidency would result in tax cuts and a more robust tariff policy.
Nevertheless, Myers asserts that the election has been cast into “complete disarray,” with Harris poised to provide Trump with a “huge challenge.”
“I would be extremely cautious and cautious about assuming that Trump will simply cruise to victory,” Myers stated. He also noted that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be perceived as risky in the short term.
Trump has stated that Harris would be more manageable to vanquish than Biden.
Harris would have selected a running companion and likely secured the nomination by the Democratic Convention. At that point, the momentum could propel her to the lead in the surveys, according to Myers.
Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona are the two most probable candidates for Harris’s running colleague, as they are perceived as more moderate and hail from critical swing states, according to Okun.
He also stated that the Democrats will be defeated by a Republican party that is entirely united around Trump if they are unable to unite factions within the party, such as moderates and progressives.
Source : CNBC News
