Oil Hits $126 — A 4-Year High — As US Military Prepares to Brief Trump on ‘Short and Powerful’ Strike Plans Against Iran

Anamika Dey, editor

● BREAKING — April 30, 2026

WORLD • ENERGY • US-IRAN WAR • OIL MARKETS

Brent crude surged past $126 a barrel on Thursday — its highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — after Axios reported that US Central Command will brief President Trump on plans for potential military action against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. Goldman Sachs warns oil could hit $140–$150. Iran says the blockade is “domned to fail.” The world braces.

April 30, 2026 • By World Affairs Desk, techsunnews.com • 8 min read • Updated 11:00 AM IST • Sources: CNBC, CNN, NBC News, Axios, Irish Times, Goldman Sachs

ENERGY CRISIS DASHBOARD — April 30, 2026

At 9 weeks into the US-Iran war, the global oil market finally broke. Brent crude surged past $126.41 a barrel in overnight trading on Thursday — its highest price since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The trigger was a report from Axios that the leader of US Central Command, General Brad Cooper, would brief President Trump on Thursday on plans for potential military action against Iran. One plan on the table: a wave of “short and powerful” strikes designed not to topple the Iranian government but to force it back to the negotiating table and end the Hormuz standoff that has choked global oil supplies for 63 days.

The price spike was sharp but brief. By Thursday morning, Brent had pulled back to around $116 a barrel as the June futures contract expired and trading volume shifted to July contracts. But the message from markets was unmistakable: investors no longer believe this war will end quickly. Brent crude has now risen 60% since the war began on February 28 — from roughly $72 a barrel to $116 today, with an intraday peak of $126.41. US West Texas Intermediate traded at $105–$110. National average gasoline in the US hit $4.30 a gallon — a four-year high and the biggest one-day jump in six weeks.

“The oil market has moved from over-optimism to the reality of the supply disruption we are seeing in the Persian Gulf. The longer this disruption persists, the less the market can rely on inventory, and the greater the need for further demand destruction.”
— Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy, ING Bank, April 30, 2026

What CENTCOM’s briefing means — and what the strike plans involve

Axios cited two sources with knowledge of the matter to report that CENTCOM’s briefing to Trump includes concrete options for military escalation. The key plan is a series of targeted, time-limited strikes on Iranian military infrastructure — not a full ground invasion or regime-change operation, but a sharp demonstration of force intended to make Iran choose between continued economic isolation and a return to peace talks. The White House has not confirmed the briefing.

The context matters. The Pakistan peace talks scheduled for April 26 collapsed before they even began — Iran refused to send delegates to meet US envoys Witkoff and Kushner. Trump subsequently warned that Iran “better get smart soon” and has been laying the groundwork for an extended blockade of Iranian ports. In a meeting with oil executives this week, Trump discussed what steps could be taken to manage the economic fallout if the blockade continued for months. The CENTCOM briefing is the military dimension of the same pressure campaign: negotiate, or face escalation.

Goldman Sachs: oil could hit $140–$150 if Hormuz stays shut

Goldman Sachs estimates that exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to just 4% of normal levels — a near-total blockade. Global oil consumption in April is approximately 3.6 million barrels per day lower than February levels, with the sharpest drops in jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. The bank warns that if disruptions persist, oil could spike toward $140–$150 a barrel — although elevated prices would eventually suppress demand. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that Thursday’s spike was the market “fixating squarely on the physical scarcity and long-term threat to supply with possible escalation now looming.”

Iran’s response — and the human cost across Asia

Iran’s leadership has not blinked. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said foreign aggressors belong in the “depths of the Persian Gulf,” while President Masoud Pezeshkian said any attempt to obstruct Iranian ports is “domned to failure.”Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is currently on a three-country diplomatic tour — Oman, Pakistan and Moscow — seeking to build international support. Meanwhile the Hormuz mines remain in place, and the Pentagon has warned that clearing them could take up to six months even after a peace deal.

The human cost of the Hormuz closure is now spreading far beyond the Middle East. Before the war, 80% of the crude and gas flowing through Hormuz was bound for Asia. With the strait effectively shut, Asian nations are bearing the brunt. Qantas, Air New Zealand, Vietnam Airlines and AirAsia have already cut flights as jet fuel prices more than doubled. The International Energy Agency chief said the world faces a “major energy and economic challenge,” warning that fertiliser and petrochemical supplies “are all interrupted.” Hunger risks are rising across Africa and South Asia.

What this means for India

India is among the countries most directly exposed to this crisis. India imports roughly 60% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in normal times. With Hormuz at 4% of normal flow, India has been forced to scramble for alternative supplies — at significantly higher prices and via longer, more expensive shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope. Brent at $116–$126 means higher petrol and diesel prices, rising inflation, rupee pressure and continued stock market stress. Every week the blockade continues compounds these pressures. If Goldman Sachs’ $140–$150 scenario materialises, the impact on India’s current account deficit would be severe.

Frequently asked questions

Why did oil hit $126 on April 30?

Brent crude hit $126.41 after Axios reported that US Central Command would brief President Trump on plans for potential military action against Iran. The report raised fears that the US-Iran war could escalate further, extending the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has risen 60% since the war began February 28.

What are the CENTCOM strike plans for Iran?

According to Axios, one plan includes a wave of “short and powerful” strikes on Iranian military infrastructure — not a full invasion, but targeted action designed to force Iran back to the negotiating table. The aim is to break the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz without triggering a full-scale escalation. Trump has not confirmed whether he will approve the plans.

How high could oil prices go?

Goldman Sachs warned that oil could spike to $140–$150 per barrel if Hormuz disruptions persist. Brent peaked at $139 during Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. At $140+, demand destruction would eventually pull prices down, but the short-term pain for consumers, airlines and importing nations like India would be severe.

How does the oil price crisis affect India?

India imports ~60% of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz. At $116–$126 per barrel, India faces higher petrol and diesel prices, rising inflation, rupee depreciation and stock market pressure. A further rise to $140–$150 would significantly widen India’s current account deficit and add to the RBI’s rate decision pressures.

What happens next

All eyes are on Trump’s response to the CENTCOM briefing. If he approves a strike package, oil markets will spike further and the ceasefire framework collapses. If he holds back and returns to diplomacy, markets may ease — but with Hormuz mines still in place and talks stalled, there is no clear path to reopening the strait quickly. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday amid the highest level of internal dissent since 1992 — a signal of how uncertain the economic outlook has become. At $116 and climbing, the oil price is the clearest measure of how much the world believes this war is far from over.

SOURCES — 7 verified global portals

1. CNBC — Brent crude hits 4-year high soaring past $126 as US military to brief Trump on Iran action (April 30)

2. CNN Business — Oil briefly touches $126, its highest price in four years (April 30, 2026)

3. CNN Live — US gas jumps to highest price since 2022 as Trump mulls extended blockade (April 30)

4. NBC News — Iran warns Trump blockade is ‘doomed to fail’ as energy prices soar to 4-year high (April 30)

5. Irish Times — Trump to be briefed on new wave of ‘short, powerful’ strikes on Iran (April 30, 2026)

6. techsunnews.com — Hormuz Mines Could Take 6 Months to Clear, Pentagon Warns Congress

7. techsunnews.com — The Strait That Broke the World Economy — Why Hormuz Matters